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Most Important Scientific Paper on Climate Change * Prof Tim Garrett * Civilization is….. – Marc Haneburght

This is one of the best podcasts for environmentalists. It connects all the dots.  All of them.  Economics, growth, human over population, fossil fuels, etc.

I had not heard this podcast or of Tim Garrett, I was alerted to it via this clip interview with Guy McPherson posted July 27th:

Here is Professor Garrett’s work bio page.

Guy says Tim was doing this heat engine work in 2007, it was not published until 2009, and the push back on the paper, how it was pulled, but re-published in 2011, and yet how infrequently it has been referenced is downright demoralizing.

Garrett’s explanations about the human growth factors were explained in a creative way by Daniel Quinn in his novel, Ishmael, in 1991.  Michael C Ruppert described it very well in the documentary Collapse.  And to really understand why the 2-3% growth IS NOT anemic was beautifully taught by Professor Bartlett in his lecture on Arithmetic, Population and Energy.

Garrett’s paper published in 2011, can be found here. The bias against him to be able to respond in print to those who wrote against him in 2009 is really beyond unfair, FUBAR comes to mind … i mean this is crazier shit than any novel I ever read.  It almost makes it completely unnecessary to post anything else on this website.  The only hope is if Mother Nature takes care of things herself.  As Guy says, Nature Bats Last.

Please note what Guy states when he talks about the process of publishing scientific work in journals. It renders the utter nonsense from deniers about how scientists work all the more absurd.

As always stated here – everything else is a symptom of the systemic cause which is human over-population (civilization).

Stephen Snyder has since passed away – and that does explain why he shepherded it because at the end of your life you feel the moral imperatives to do something about this predicament.

In 2013 Professor Garrett published another paper, here is the abstract and and link to download the pdf.

Thermodynamics of long-run economic
innovation and growth
Timothy J. Garrett
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggre-
gated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation
and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium ther-
modynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain
existing circulations and to further its material growth. Appealing to a prior result
that established a fixed relationship between a very general representation of global
economic wealth and rates of global primary energy consumption, physically de-
rived expressions for economic quantities follow. The analysis suggests that wealth
can be expressed in terms of the length density of civilization’s networks and the
availability of energy resources. Rates of return on wealth are accelerated by en-
ergy reserve discovery, improvements to human and infrastructure longevity, and
a more common culture, or a lowering of the amount of energy required to diffuse
raw materials into civilization’s bulk. According to a logistic equation, rates of
return are slowed by past growth, and if rates of return approach zero, such “slow-
ing down” makes civilization fragile with respect to externally imposed network
decay. If past technological change has been especially rapid, then civilization is
particularly vulnerable to newly unfavorable conditions that might force a switch
into a mode of accelerating collapse.
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4 Trackbacks / Pingbacks

  1. Most Important Scientific Paper on Climate Change * Prof Tim Garrett * –
  2. Guy McPherson – Human Extinction within 10 years (no one is calculating the positive feedback loops) – Earth Network .news
  3. The Gary Null Show – 01.26.17: How long does humanity have? A look at feedback loops and worse case scenarios for our species – Earth Network .news
  4. The Attitudes about David Wallace-Wells article, The Uninhabitable Earth, in New York Magazine – Earth Network .news


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